Beware of Certainty in Uncertain Times
“Be very suspicious of a priori arguments on empirical matters (e.g. “AI will certainly kill everyone”), they’re usually wrong no matter how convincing. Reality is endlessly surprising. (Cf. Knightian uncertainty.)
Humans have a habit of making bold predictions about the future, often based on logic that feels airtight but hasn’t faced the test of reality. Lately, one such prediction is that artificial intelligence will inevitably lead to our demise. While the argument might seem compelling, it’s a prime example of relying on theoretical reasoning where empirical observation is crucial.
The trouble with these kinds of assertions is that they assume the world operates in straight lines, following rules we’ve laid out in our minds. But reality isn’t that tidy. It’s full of surprises and complexities that our neat theories often overlook. We tend to forget that there’s a difference between what we can measure and predict and the vast unknowns where outcomes can’t be neatly calculated.
Consider past innovations that were met with fear and skepticism. When the printing press was introduced, many worried it would destabilize society. The industrial revolution sparked fears of massive unemployment. More recently, the internet was accused of ruining our attention spans. Each of these transformations brought challenges, yes, but they also led to unforeseen benefits and adaptations we couldn’t have predicted.
One reason these dire predictions often miss the mark is that they don’t account for how adaptable humans and our systems are. Entrepreneurs, for instance, don’t eliminate uncertainty—they navigate it. Profit often comes from stepping into the unknown, bridging the gap between what we understand and what we can’t foresee. Society, too, evolves in response to new technologies and circumstances, often in ways that only become clear after the fact.
Relying solely on theoretical arguments without grounding them in real-world evidence overlooks this adaptability. Imagine living in the 1800s and arguing that trains would disrupt society because they move at “unnatural” speeds. It might sound logical given the knowledge of the time, but it ignores the possibility that people could adjust to this new mode of transportation and that it could bring about positive changes.
The same goes for fears about AI. It’s wise to study potential risks and work on mitigating them, but declaring with absolute certainty that AI will destroy humanity ignores the myriad variables and unknowns that will influence how this technology develops and integrates into our lives.
The world is a complex, dynamic place—not a controlled experiment where every variable is known. Embracing this uncertainty isn’t about admitting defeat; it’s about acknowledging the richness and unpredictability of reality. It calls for humility and curiosity, urging us to observe and learn rather than cling to untested assumptions.
So when we hear sweeping claims about the future—whether about AI or any other transformative force—it’s worth taking a step back. Recognize that the future is shaped by countless factors, many beyond our current understanding. Instead of being swayed by the allure of certainty, we should remain open to surprises and be prepared to adapt. After all, it’s this very unpredictability that makes the world an interesting place to live.
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